Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia

Agroforestry is a promising adaptation measure for climate change, especially low external inputs smallholder maize farming systems. However, due to its long-term nature and heterogeneity across farms landscapes, it difficult quantitatively evaluate contribution in building the resilience of systems change over large areas. In this study, we developed an approach simulate emulate shading, micro-climate regulation biomass effects multi-purpose trees agroforestry system on yields using APSIM, taking Ethiopia as case study. Applying model impacts showed that at national level, yield will increase by 7.5 3.1 % 2050 under RCP2.6 RCP8.5, respectively. This projected national-level driven increases six administrative zones whereas losses are expected other five (mean ?6.8% ?11.7% RCP8.5), with four remaining stable overtime. emulated leads current future climatic conditions compared monocultures, particularly regions which expected. A 10% shade reduce 6.9% (RCP2.6) 4.2 (RCP8.5) while 20% 11.5% 11% loss zones. Overall, our results show buffers areas have Ethiopia, therefore should be part climate-resilient agricultural